martes, 23 de abril de 2013

BUBBLES REACHING ESCAPE VELOCITY



Bitcoin



Having read at least 3,000 short stories and 500 SF (Science Fiction) novels, allow me to state with some authority that Bitcoin was not predicted in the corpus of XXth century literature. This is surprising since Computers, the internet, nuclear weapons, lasers, calculators, something very similar to Google, superconductors, drones Radar and a host of other things that populate our civilization today were posited by writers of the genre starting in the XIXth.

This gives me the conviction that BTC has the potential to become the proverbial black swan on a global scale; an algorithm that generates a rift in the matrix of vast proportions... As an aside, the people who generated the algorithm and set the BTC in motion already have my respect as the most interesting masterminds of subversion. The audacity of the concept has kept me in a state of shocked awe at the potential we primates have for initiating snowballs of unpredictable consequences.

Perhaps some kink will be found in this "currency"; perhaps the UN will jump in and with a unanimous vote declare BTC to be the tool of "terris A-narko insur Gents" and declare it the minion of the devil and culprit in gerbil warming, and that's that... That possibility will loom bigger and bigger as the capitalization of the coin increases and perhaps becomes a nuisance to central banks.



If you click the image above, or right here, a new tab will open with actualized market cap.

If i was a central banker i would be taking measures -extreme measures- now that the currency is in the bud. Philosophically speaking BTC and their ilk are the first credible existential threat to the monopoly of fiat creation that governments have traditionally held.

At the same time i presume -but by no means have certainty- that the monetary mass of BTC at $1.5 billion USD (as i write this) flies under the radar of worry of a BBernank, a Schauble or a Dijseelbloehm. Therefore i will posit for followup posts that the BTC experiment is a DEFCON_5 for world finance at the moment. An almost worrisome tidbit, a gnat to keep watch over.



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For DEFCON_4 to be declared one of two conditions have to be met:

1. Monetary mass of $10 billion approx 1BTC=$900usd is reached.
2. Terris attack or black ops or druglord caught in the act of transferring funds through digital wallets

2. Being, of course a false flag psyop to give legitimacy for a full frontal Treasury DHS attack on bitcoins and therefore giving a sideways glance at the level of attention said currency is gathering by tptb.

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For DEFCON_3 to be declared One of two conditions have to be met:

1. Monetary mass of $100 billion.
2. The common term to refer to the coin will be either "Satoshis" (cents of a bitcoin) or "mBTC" (Millibitcoins, thousandths of a bitcoin).

At this point, there will be a daily transaction volume of around 15 billion USD. That is no chump change... at the same time still no big deal in a forex market that transacts tens of trillions in a day

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For DEFCON_2 to be declared, one of two conditions have to be met:

1. Monetary mass of $1 trillion.
2. G7 or G20 or UN making a statement outlawing BTC.

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For DEFCON_1 to be declared, one of two conditions have to be met:

1. Monetary mass of $10 trillion.
2. National laws declaring possession of BTC a felony punishable with prison sentences.


As usual, we primates tend to be ignorant of the truly awesome power of the exponential function. We also are drawn to herd behaviour. Stampedes (whichever direction they happen to take) are a proven survival trait; financial bubbles in our XXIst century -which are sophisticated computerized hyperlinked and algo bot designed buy/sell storms- are a natural result and consequence of pure markets functioning unfettered by regulation. Self interest will keep inflating bubbles in markets. To expect otherwise is not supported by evidence...

As an example of an AlgoBot generated stampede i give you April's 23 2013 market action provoked by a tweet from the hacked AP Twitter account Where you see a minicrash after the fake White House Bombing Tweet.



So, to get back to our original bitcoin theme: All these defcon signposts seem very much the realm of Science Fiction right now, But then again... Who would have thought ten years ago that Bernanke could print 85billion USD a month with impunity...

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Caveat emptor: Anybody that assumes (even in geosynchronous orbit) the text above is some sort of financial advice deserves a Darwin Award.

2 comentarios:

Pleiotropik dijo...

La reacción inicial está en línea con el nivel de alarma que ha provocado. Ciertamente que los banqueros centrales lo tienen en su horizonte de preocupaciones. Las acciones hasta el momento van encaminadas a los únicos blancos fáciles... personalmente mantengo la mayor parte de los bitcoins en la "wallet" así que una acción de confiscación directa en contra de mtgox no me afecta, ya abrí cuenta en btc-e y estoy haciendo cambalaches moneda>btc ahí en cantidades pequeñas para poner a prueba su confiabilidad. También rastreo las noticias de que otros puntos de intercambio se están armando en ultramar. La palabra clave, en cantidades importantes es la misma que con cualquier otro tema financiero: "diversificación"... En torno a las valuaciones esperadas por el que escribe al artículo... son factibles como puntas de burbuja en el futuro mediato de dos a tres años conforme se desmorone el castillo de naipes de Ben Bernanke, digamos que BTC por su peculiaridad deflacionaria de no poder incrementar su oferta mas que en cantidades fijas y decrecientes se cierne como la medida constante frente a un universo de oferta monetaria de banqueros centrales en expansión hacia lo que desde el punto de vista práctico son cantidades infinitas... la deuda US: 54 billones USD, la piramide nocional de obligaciones derivadas va en 600 billones y la capa de reaseguramientos y obligaciones sociales a nivel global un trillón... (1*10^18)... esa sí que es burbuja... el btc es desde su diminuto rincón de 1*10^9 potencialmente el único punto de referencia fijo en un mundo de dinero relativista a lo einstein acercándose a un hoyo negro... No seas optimista ni pesimista: ten en cuenta que hay varios niveles de intensidad en esta guerra monetaria que no le han aplicado todavía a BTC... estos son los primeros escarceos de una guerra de desgaste en la que los banksters saben que se están jugando la vida... Al final saldrán derrotados porque aún sin btc, su esquema de concentración de riqueza a través del no reconocimiento del quebranto social que significa "imprimir riqueza" agoniza: NO SE PUEDE IMPRIMIR RIQUEZA. algo tan fácil de decirse, tan intuitivo va en contra de la biblia de los banqueros centrales... Amerita lo anterior una reflexión mas profunda pero hay varios analistas que tienen muy bien cercado el discurso en torno a esto...
Para sintetizar: "GAME ON"...

Pleiotropik dijo...
Este comentario ha sido eliminado por el autor.